Networks are having a moment, or rather, they’ve been having it for quite some time, long before the big contagion and the flattening of curves, but the moment is expanding. Stephen Wolfram is working on a new physics model that would explain the universe in terms of network evolution and…

Two characteristics of the Bitcoin trade are generally overlooked in the discussion: (1) Distributed networks tend to concentration over time, and (2) the price of Bitcoin can’t, by definition, be a bubble.

If a value bubble is definable as a wide and growing gap between the technicals of a traded…

From a recent interview around the release of his new book, the following remark by Daniel Kahneman stands out: “The technology is developing very rapidly, possibly exponentially. But people are linear. When linear people are faced with exponential change, they’re not going to be able to adapt to that very…

Towards the end of last year, I published a series of short posts on what I saw as a newly emergent but potentially powerful trend in financial markets, in which sentiment seemed to overshadow analysis and fundamentals as a driving force. In light of recent events — that is, the…

When an economy is understood, up or down, it’s possible to plan, to concentrate resources, and to invest with reasonable confidence, even if results don’t follow as expected. …

There are any number of ways to define, or interpret, sentiment. As with many definitions and interpretations, this can depend on context. For financial markets, which are multivariate and deep, the context and its drivers, the resulting definitions and interpretations, are like a mosaic — personal, social, geographical, political, historical…

The last two posts in what is turning out to be a sort of mini-series have been about the emergence of sentiment as a principal driving force in 2020 financial markets. The first, The most basic fundamental, lays out the initial argument and identifies some key resulting market aspects in…

Our favored valuation multiples have over time climbed up the income statement ladder, rung by rung, and, before long, we may transcend the income statement altogether.

We used to chart the P/E multiples back when, feeling as though earnings were a close enough cash flow proxy, which then was what…