Bubbles and pops: The investment thesis in contextThis is most likely the last of my blog posts here, at least for a while. Since my previous one, about a year ago, I have increasingly…Jan 9Jan 9
Published inInsiderFinance WireSentiment and flows: The investment thesis refinedThe investment thesis, as presented in the original post on the subject, maintains that in an increasingly digitized global economy the…Mar 9, 2024Mar 9, 2024
Published inInsiderFinance WireInstability, new values, and the end of swansIt is recognized that a principal market driver and possibly the principal one, is sentiment. Notwithstanding the growing influence of…Dec 28, 2023Dec 28, 2023
Published inInsiderFinance WireMarkets and the years ahead: The Risk ThesisThis is in continuation of a post from roughly two years ago — Markets and the years ahead: The Investment Thesis — in which it was argued…Nov 22, 2023Nov 22, 2023
The mystery of new frontiersThe “fear of missing out” — a fear characteristic of the moment in financial markets — seems a prevalent enough sentiment that some…Jan 13, 2023Jan 13, 2023
Regaining our composure, or Swan risk on the riseIn his latest memo (Sea Change, December 2022), Howard Marks argues that, after a multi-decade period of low and falling interest rates and…Dec 16, 2022Dec 16, 2022
Published inInsiderFinance WireThe cost of fabricationAn irony that may be lost among the list of failed cryptocurrency premises — the inflation hedge that isn’t, the store of value that isn’t…Jul 4, 2022Jul 4, 2022
Published inInsiderFinance WireThe end of cycles (Part 2)This is in continuation of a previous article (Part 1) in which a case was argued that, if historical, economic or business cycles ever…Jun 3, 2022Jun 3, 2022
Published inInsiderFinance WireThe end of cycles (Part 1)The temptation to explain history as a repeating pattern is a long and rich tradition, dating as far back as Ecclesiastes (“only that shall…Jun 1, 2022Jun 1, 2022
Published inInsiderFinance WireMarkets and the years ahead: The Investment ThesisIn times of turbulence, as in the first weeks of this year and possibly for a while to come, it may be a constructive and calming exercise…Jan 11, 2022Jan 11, 2022
